How to trade prediction markets on Hyperliquid: a step-by-step guide

Contents

What are prediction markets on Hyperliquid?#

They are HIP-4 outcome markets: pairs of Yes and No tokens that trade on HyperCore's onchain order book and settle in USDC. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 page calls them fully collateralized contracts with no leverage and no liquidations, so the most you can lose is what you paid.

Some markets are recurring crypto price markets that the protocol deploys and settles itself, such as a daily BTC binary (bitcoin price prediction markets compares them with Kalshi's and Polymarket's). Others are deployed by staked deployers from validator-approved templates: Fed decisions, sports, IPOs and more. What HIP-4 is covers the mechanics, and what Hyperliquid is explains HyperCore.

What do you need before you start?#

You need a wallet, USDC on Hyperliquid and to be eligible where you live. You don't need HYPE: Hyperliquid's how to start trading guide says trading on Hyperliquid needs no gas, which is only paid on the chain you deposit from.

• A wallet. An EVM wallet such as Rabby or MetaMask, or an email login on Hyperliquid's app. Totalis signs you up with Google or email and gives you a wallet inside the app.
• USDC on Hyperliquid. HIP-4 markets trade in USDC. A wallet-connected deposit on Hyperliquid's app takes USDC on Arbitrum only, and deposits below 5 USDC are lost. How to deposit and withdraw on Hyperliquid covers every route.
• Eligibility. Hyperliquid's terms, last updated 15 June 2026, close the app to anyone in the US or Ontario, close outcome markets to further "Excluded Persons", and forbid VPNs. The Totalis terms of service exclude every US person, US citizens abroad included, and call VPN use a material breach. See Hyperliquid in the US for more.

How do you trade on Hyperliquid's own Outcomes page?#

Connect, deposit USDC, open the Outcomes tab, pick a market and buy Yes or No. Hyperliquid's docs have no outcome-specific walkthrough, so these steps come from its onboarding guide, the HIP-4 page and the Outcomes page as of 11 November 2026:

1. Connect. Log in with email, or connect a wallet and click "Enable Trading" to sign a gasless message.
2. Deposit USDC. Click "Deposit" and send USDC (see above).
3. Find a market. The Outcomes page filters by All, Crypto, Economics, Tradfi, Sports, Culture, Technology and Deployer. Each card shows Yes and No with a chance and a payout multiple, such as "BTC touches 65,000 by Dec 1": Yes 21%, 4.72x. Deployer markets carry a short venue tag, such as "out" or "txyz".
4. Read the rules, then buy. Choose Yes or No and a size. Yes and No share one merged book: buying Yes at a price is the same order as selling No at 1 minus that price.
5. Exit or hold. Sell before the end, or hold and let settlement pay you.

How do you trade on Totalis?#

On Totalis you trade the same HIP-4 markets as a single, or join 2 to 5 of them in a Combo:

1. Sign up with an invite code. Totalis is invite-only for now. Sign up at the Totalis app with Google or email.
2. Add USDC. The app shows one Cash balance and moves USDC between HyperCore, where singles trade, and the Totalis vault on HyperEVM, where Combos sit. Totalis pays the gas.
3. Pick a market. Totalis lists Hyperliquid's own outcome markets: crypto, finance, economics, sports and esports.
4. Trade a single. Buy Yes or No; the order goes straight to the HyperCore order book.
5. Or build a Combo. Add 2 to 5 legs and request a quote. Market makers compete to quote one payout, and you sign the one you want.

Not every market can join a Combo. The Combo trading guide sets three rules: the event must be within 7 days, the market needs a live price on both sides, and a Combo holds at most one leg per question. Totalis can also keep a market out.

An example, as of 11 November 2026, 03:04 UTC (Totalis public markets API): the question "Federal Open Market Committee December 2026 rate decision" had Increase at 95.3% (best bid 0.950, ask 0.955), No change at 3.5% and Decrease at 1.4%. It trades as a single now and opens for Combos on 2 December at 19:00 UTC, a week before the 9 December decision. How to trade the Fed decision walks through its rules.

For the full product, read what Totalis is; for other venues, prediction market Combos compared, the best HIP-4 apps and, beyond Hyperliquid, the best prediction market apps.

How do prices and payouts work?#

A share's price is the market's chance of that result, and a winning share pays 1 USDC. At settlement, HIP-4 converts each Yes token into settleFraction USDC and each No token into 1 - settleFraction, so a binary market pays 1 or 0. A standalone market can settle to a fraction in between, while outcomes in a question settle only to 0 or 1.

With the Fed example: 100 Increase Yes shares at the 0.955 ask cost 95.50 USDC and pay 100 USDC if the Fed hikes, a 4.50 USDC gain before fees. If it doesn't, they pay nothing. That fixed payout is also what lets an outcome hedge a Hyperliquid perp.

A Combo pays its quoted payout times the product of its legs' results. Don't estimate that payout by multiplying leg prices: legs can be related, and the maker's quote is the price.

What does it cost?#

Hyperliquid's fee docs conflict. Its fee schedule says outcome trading charges fees only when you close or settle, never when you open, with no maker rebates. The HIP-4 page still says outcome fees are "currently zero" for initial testing. Neither prints a rate. Each market also carries a deployerFeeScale from 0 to 10, which multiplies the base fee by up to 20 times, per the HIP-4 deployer actions.

Totalis numbers come from its fees and limits page. Some single orders skip the builder fee, such as a new account's first buy. Its worked Combo example: a 10 USDC stake quoted at a 25 USDC payout pays 0.15 USDC on entry and returns 24.8485 USDC on a full win. Hyperliquid fees puts outcome fees next to perps and spot, and lowest-fee prediction markets compares other venues.

How does a market settle and when do you get paid?#

You get paid when the market settles, with nothing to redeem: HIP-4 converts your tokens into USDC on HyperCore. Who settles depends on the market:

• Recurring price markets settle automatically at expiry. Per Hyperliquid's contract specifications, a binary settles Yes if the BTC mark price, interpolated to the settlement time, is at or above the target.
• Deployer markets settle when the deployer signs a settleOutcome or settleQuestion2 action against the template's rules. The Fed question gives a deadline: if no decision is established by 27 January 2027, No change resolves Yes.

On Totalis, singles settle on Hyperliquid the same way. A Combo settles automatically, starting within about 10 seconds of its deciding leg resolving on HyperCore, and a win lands in your vault balance. You can cash out a Combo before then if a maker bids. The withdrawals guide sends USDC to any HyperEVM address in one signed request, with Totalis paying the gas.

What can go wrong?#

• Thin books. As of 11 November 2026, 03:04 UTC, Yes on "BTC at or above 74,798 at Nov 11, 2026 06:00 UTC" had a best bid of 0.0002 and a best ask of 0.0141. A wide spread costs more than any fee, and HIP-4 still trades far less than Polymarket or Kalshi (HIP-4 volume).
• Deployer settlement. A deployer market settles when its deployer signs. The protocol has no appeal step; the protection is the deployer's stake, which validators can slash for a badly defined market or a wrong settlement. Hyperliquid's terms say you have no recourse against its operator or anyone else for losses from a disputed settlement.
• Template wording. Hyperliquid's Outcomes page titles that BTC market "BTC above 74798", but its spec settles Yes at or above. A deployer's "BTC above 73607" market is strictly above. Read the rules, not the title.
• All-or-nothing Combos. One losing leg loses the whole Combo, and a maker can decline to cash it out.

Your 5-step checklist#

1. Check you are eligible: not in the US, and not a US person for Totalis.
2. Get USDC onto Hyperliquid, at least 5 USDC if you deposit from Arbitrum.
3. Pick a venue: Hyperliquid's Outcomes page, or Totalis for singles and Combos.
4. Read the market's rules and the spread before you size the trade.
5. Hold to settlement or sell early, then withdraw your USDC.

About the author#

Turk is a founding engineer at Totalis, the prediction market app on Hyperliquid.

Sources and further reading#

• Hyperliquid, HIP-4 outcome markets, accessed 2026-11-11
• Hyperliquid, fees, accessed 2026-11-11
• Hyperliquid, terms of use, accessed 2026-11-11
• Totalis, fees and limits, accessed 2026-11-11
• Totalis, Combo trading guide, accessed 2026-11-11
• Totalis, terms of service, accessed 2026-11-11

Related: what HIP-4 is, Hyperliquid deposits and withdrawals, what Totalis is.

FAQ#

Can I trade Hyperliquid prediction markets from the US?#

No. Hyperliquid's terms exclude anyone who lives in or is located in the US, and forbid VPNs to get around that. Totalis excludes all US persons, including US citizens living abroad.

Do I need HYPE to trade Hyperliquid prediction markets?#

No. Trading on Hyperliquid needs no gas, and Totalis pays the gas for Totalis trades. Staking HYPE can lower Hyperliquid's trading fees, but it isn't required.

What is the minimum to trade?#

A wallet-connected USDC deposit on Hyperliquid needs at least 5 USDC. On Totalis, a Combo needs a net stake of at least 0.9 USDC after the entry fee, and stakes go up to 1,000 USDC.

Can you combine Hyperliquid prediction markets?#

Not on Hyperliquid itself: each outcome trades on its own book. Totalis joins 2 to 5 eligible markets into one Combo that market makers price, held in its vault on HyperEVM.