Bitcoin price prediction markets: how to trade them in 2026

Contents

What is a bitcoin price prediction market?#

A Yes and No contract on one BTC price question with a fixed payout and date. A share bought at 15 cents pays 1 if Yes and 0 if No, however far the price moves. Four kinds are common:

• Above at a time: is BTC above 73,909 at 06:00 UTC tomorrow? Venues list a ladder of strikes per expiry.
• Touch by a date: does BTC reach 85,000 before 1 December? It settles Yes the moment the level is hit.
• Range: does BTC end the day inside a band?
• Up or down: is BTC higher at the end of a short window than at its start?

Where can you trade bitcoin price prediction markets?#

On Totalis, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Hyperliquid itself. They differ in who can use them, which price settles them, and whether BTC can join a multi-leg position. As of 10 November 2026:

• Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and takes traders from many countries outside the US. Its BTC contract terms name CF Benchmarks as the source and settle above, below and range markets on the average of the index over the minute before expiry. Its combo builder includes the daily and 15-minute BTC series, and it charges a fee on expected earnings.
• Polymarket (international) lists daily ladders such as Bitcoin above ___ on November 13?, which settles on the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at noon ET, and touch ladders such as What price will Bitcoin hit in November?. Its 15-minute up or down markets settle on a Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP. At the crypto rate, 100 shares at 50 cents pay a 1.75 USDC taker fee, per its fee page. Polymarket combos are "currently available on sports markets only", and the site is close-only in the United States.
• Polymarket US lists hand-picked Bitcoin markets such as year-end ladders. Its crypto FAQs describe recurring up or down, above or below, range and one-touch contracts on CF Benchmarks' index, rolling out in stages. Fees follow its fee schedule.
• Hyperliquid runs a recurring BTC binary that settles daily at 06:00 UTC and a daily range question. You trade them from your own wallet (how to trade prediction markets on Hyperliquid); its interface terms exclude the US and Ontario.

We found no BTC price contracts on Robinhood's event contract pages. We build Totalis. For venues beyond crypto, see Polymarket alternatives and the best prediction market apps; fees across all of them are in lowest-fee prediction markets.

Which bitcoin markets does Totalis list?#

Three families, all Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets. At 08:55 UTC on 11 November 2026, with BTC's mark price near 73,700 on Hyperliquid:

Strike ladders for 12, 13 and 16 November, from 71,000 to 79,000, had no live price, so they couldn't join a Combo. Similar markets exist for ETH, SOL and HYPE.

How does a bitcoin price market resolve on HIP-4?#

On Hyperliquid's own BTC price, by the rule written into each market. Each Yes share converts to 1 or 0 USDC, and HIP-4 outcomes are fully collateralized, with no leverage or liquidations (what HIP-4 is). The three rules:

• Hyperliquid's daily market: the protocol deploys and settles it. Per its contract specifications, Yes wins if the BTC mark price, interpolated between the updates either side of 06:00 UTC, is at or above the strike.
• Touch by 1 December: "The price counts as touched once the 3-second TWAP of BTC-USDC perp mark price equals or crosses 85000 at any time after this market is deployed," and "the market can settle as soon as a touch occurs."
• 15-minute above: Yes only if BTC is strictly above the strike, on "the 60-second TWAP of BTC-USDC perp mark price ending at" expiry.

Read the rule, not only the title: "at or above" and "above" split on one cent, and a Binance candle, a CF Benchmarks average and a Hyperliquid mark can settle the same level differently.

Can you put bitcoin in a Combo?#

Yes, once the BTC market is within 7 days of its date, has a live price and is open for Combos; Totalis excludes some markets. A Combo joins 2 to 5 legs from different questions and pays its quoted payout only if every leg wins. Makers compete to quote it, the stake sits in the Totalis vault on HyperEVM, and settlement starts within about 10 seconds of the deciding leg resolving.

An example from the 11 November listings: "Bitcoin hits 85,000 by 1 December" (9%) and "Crude oil hits 100 by 1 December" (18%) both open for Combos at 00:00 UTC on 24 November, so one Combo could hold both, or swap one for an NBA game that week. Don't multiply the chances to estimate the payout: BTC and oil can move together, and the maker's quote is the price.

Before settlement you can ask makers to buy the Combo back; a maker can decline. Combos pay a 1.5% entry fee and 1% of profit, so a 10 USDC stake quoted to pay 25 USDC returns 24.8485 USDC on a full win, per the Totalis fees and limits page. The Combo trading guide has the full rules, and prediction market combos compares Kalshi's.

How is this different from perps or options?#

A price market pays a fixed amount at a fixed time, and the most you can lose is what you paid. A perp tracks BTC with leverage and no expiry; an option pays more the further BTC moves past its strike.

On Hyperliquid's perps, funding is paid every hour and a position is liquidated when equity falls below maintenance margin; what Hyperliquid is covers the exchange. An "above" market behaves like a digital option, and a touch market like a one-touch option. HIP-4 can also settle between 0 and 1, which makes a contract that pays across a range, like a call spread: see bounded options on HIP-4.

Use a price market to trade a level and a date with a known maximum loss; use a perp to trade size and direction. The two also work together: hedging a Hyperliquid perp with HIP-4 sizes a touch market against a perp's loss at a chosen price.

How do you trade bitcoin price markets on Totalis?#

1. Check you can use it. Totalis is for people outside the US; signing up takes an invite code.
2. Add USDC. The maximum Combo stake is 1,000 USDC.
3. Pick a level. Buy Yes or No on a strike as a single on the HyperCore order book, for a 0.1% builder fee plus Hyperliquid's outcome fee.
4. Or build a Combo. Add up to four other legs and accept a maker's quote.
5. Let it settle or cash out. Singles settle on Hyperliquid; Totalis settles a Combo into your vault balance.

Trade Bitcoin price markets on Totalis if you are outside the US.

About the author#

Turk is a founding engineer at Totalis, the prediction market app on Hyperliquid.

Sources and further reading#

• Hyperliquid, contract specifications: recurring outcomes, accessed 2026-11-10
• Totalis, Combo trading guide, accessed 2026-11-10
• Kalshi, BTC contract terms, accessed 2026-11-10
• Polymarket, trading fees, accessed 2026-11-10
• Polymarket US, crypto FAQs, accessed 2026-11-10

Related: what HIP-4 is, Hyperliquid fees, Fed rate decision prediction markets.

FAQ#

Can you trade the bitcoin price on Polymarket?#

Yes, on the international site, with daily, touch and up or down markets. It is close-only in the US, where Polymarket US settles its Bitcoin markets on CF Benchmarks' index instead of Binance.

What are Kalshi's bitcoin markets?#

15-minute, hourly and daily above or below markets, ranges, and monthly and yearly highs and lows, settled on CF Benchmarks' index. The daily and 15-minute ones can join a combo.

Can you lose more than your stake on a bitcoin price market?#

No. A share costs less than 1 and pays 0 or 1, with no leverage or liquidation, so the most you can lose is what you paid. A leveraged perp can lose its whole margin on a small move.

Is Totalis available in the US?#

No. The Totalis Terms of Service bar US persons and anyone in the US, VPN or not. For Hyperliquid itself, see Hyperliquid and US users.