NBA Prediction Markets: Where and How to Trade

NBA prediction markets are Yes and No contracts on basketball outcomes, such as a game winner, a spread or the NBA title, that pay 1 dollar each if you are right and nothing if you are wrong. Outside the US, Totalis, which we build, trades NBA games and the title market on Hyperliquid and joins several games in one Combo; it isn't available to anyone in the US. In the US, trade them on Kalshi, Polymarket US or Robinhood.

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The price reads as a probability: a team at 62 cents has about a 62% chance, and you can sell before the final buzzer. On an exchange, other traders take the other side, not the house (prediction markets vs sportsbooks). Polymarket US says its platform "does not take the other side of your trades and does not set prices." Combos are the exception: a market maker quotes them and takes the other side.

Where can you trade NBA prediction markets?#

On five venues, which differ most in who can use them and how many NBA markets they list. As of 10 November 2026:

Platform	Availability	NBA markets	Combos	Fees	Custody
Totalis	Outside the US, with an invite code	Game winners, title winner	2 to 5 legs	Combo 1.5% entry, 1% of profit; singles 0.1% plus Hyperliquid's fee	Totalis wallet and HyperEVM vault, USDC
Kalshi	US and many other countries	Games, spreads, totals, player stats, title, awards, NBA Cup	NBA legs included	Fee on expected earnings	Kalshi cash balance, USD
Polymarket US	US residents	Winner, spread, total, futures, props	2 to 10 markets	Taker fee by price and 30-day volume tier	Separate customer account, USD
Robinhood	US residents 18+; no sports in MD, MI, NV, OH, UT	Outcome, spread, totals, player contracts	Up to 10 legs, basketball included	Commission by price, plus exchange fee	Robinhood Derivatives account, USD
Polymarket (international)	Outside the US and other restricted countries	Moneylines, spreads, totals, player stats, futures	Sports combos	Sports taker rate 0.05	Polymarket smart wallet, crypto

Totalis trades Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets as singles on the HyperCore order book or as Combos held in its vault on HyperEVM. Singles usually pay a 0.1% builder fee plus Hyperliquid's outcome trading fee, and every charge is on the Totalis fees and limits page. It lists no NBA spreads, totals or player markets.
Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the CFTC that also takes traders from many countries outside the US. Its NBA markets on 10 November included game, spread, total, player points, champion, MVP and NBA Cup series, and its combo builder took NBA legs. Kalshi Combos are priced by RFQ, and Kalshi charges a fee on expected earnings.
Polymarket US trades in US dollars. Its sports FAQs list winner, spread, total, futures and player prop contracts, with overtime counted in NBA games, and its combos join 2 to 10 markets. Taker fees follow Θ × C × p × (1 − p), with Θ set by 30-day volume, per its fee schedule. Customer funds sit in a dedicated account separate from the company's.
Robinhood event contracts need US residency, age 18 and an approved derivatives account. Maryland, Michigan and Nevada residents can't trade sports contracts, and as of 2 November 2026 Ohio and Utah residents can't open new ones. Commission is capped at 1 cent a contract, plus an exchange fee of up to 1 cent, per the same page. Custom combos of up to 10 legs cover "professional football and basketball", per its trading guide.
Polymarket (international) listed 248 markets on one game on 10 November, Celtics vs. 76ers, mostly player stats and spreads. Its fee page sets the sports taker rate at 0.05, its combos cover sports moneylines, spreads and totals, and funds sit in a Polymarket smart wallet.

We list venues whose own docs or public market data describe their NBA markets, checked on 10 November 2026. We build Totalis. For other leagues, see the best prediction markets for sports and NFL prediction markets. For the wider field, see the best prediction market apps and lowest-fee prediction markets.

Can you trade NBA prediction markets in the US?#

Yes, on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood, subject to state limits. Not on Totalis: the Totalis Terms of Service bar US persons and anyone located in the US, and forbid using a VPN to get around that.

Polymarket's geographic restrictions page lists the United States as close-only on its international site. For Hyperliquid itself, see Hyperliquid and US users.

Does the NBA have a prediction market partner?#

Yes. On 26 October 2026 the NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges, signed a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on NBA markets, and expanded its DraftKings deal to cover prediction markets. The two exchanges get official NBA data from Sportradar to settle authorized markets, and the marketing rights apply within the United States.

Totalis has no NBA deal. Its NBA markets state that they are "not sponsored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with" the league.

How does an NBA game market settle?#

On the NBA's official result, overtime included. NBA games can't end tied, so a game market pays 1 or 0 unless the game never gets a result. For example, as of 11 November 2026 Totalis listed "NBA Regular Season: Philadelphia 76ers v Toronto Raptors", with Yes as PHI and No as TOR, tip-off at 00:00 UTC on 13 November and the 76ers at an 80% chance. Its rules say:

What counts: "The Counted Play is the full game including overtime."
No result: "The market resolves to 0.5 if the Contest Result is a draw, records a no contest or no winner, names an unlisted winner, or is not established by 20261120-0000 UTC," 7 days after tip-off.
Postponed games: a rescheduled game between the same teams in the same regular season "remains the Contest, subject to the same rules and deadline."
Locking: the NBA's record one hour after it publishes the final result counts; later corrections don't.

The title question, "2026/2027 NBA winner", named eight teams on 11 November, led by the Spurs at 22%, the Thunder at 14% and the 76ers at 12%. A team resolves No once the NBA's record shows it can no longer win; if an unlisted team wins, all eight resolve No. The deadline is 23:59 UTC on 30 June 2027.

How do NBA Combos work on Totalis?#

A Totalis Combo joins 2 to 5 NBA picks into one position that pays its quoted payout only if every leg wins. Makers compete to quote it, and settlement starts within about 10 seconds of the deciding game resolving on HyperCore. The rules, from how a Combo is built, cashed out and settled:

Window: a game opens for Combos when tip-off is within 7 days and it has a live price, though Totalis can keep a market out. On 11 November all 33 NBA games Totalis listed, tipping off from 12 to 15 November (UTC), were open; the title question opens on 23 June 2027.
One leg per question: a Combo can hold up to five games, but one side of each game and one team from the title question.
A game with no result: a Combo pays its payout times the product of its legs' results, so a leg at 0.5 halves the payout.
Cash out: before the games finish you can ask makers to buy the Combo back. A maker can decline.

An example from 11 November: the Knicks over the Cavaliers (62%), the Spurs over the Bulls (90%) and the Lakers over the Bucks (85%), all on 12 November UTC, as one Combo. Don't multiply those chances to estimate a payout: games can be related, and the maker's quote is the price. Prediction market combos compares Combos with Kalshi's and Polymarket's.

How do you trade NBA markets on Totalis?#

Check you can use it. Totalis is for people outside the US; signing up takes an invite code.
Add USDC. Positions are in USDC, and Combo stakes sit in the Totalis vault on HyperEVM. The maximum stake is 1,000 USDC.
Pick your games. Trade one team alone on the HyperCore order book, or add up to five games that are open for Combos.
Accept a quote. Makers quote the Combo's payout; you sign the one you want.
Cash out or let it settle. Ask makers to buy your Combo back, or wait: Totalis settles it into your vault balance, and singles settle on Hyperliquid.

Trade NBA games on Totalis if you are outside the US.

When are the NBA Cup final and the 2027 playoffs?#

The Emirates NBA Cup championship is on 11 December 2026 at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The regular season ends on 11 April 2027, the play-in tournament runs from 13 to 16 April, and the playoffs begin on 17 April, per the NBA's 2026-27 key dates. Totalis's title market must settle by 30 June 2027.

About the author#

Turk is a founding engineer at Totalis, the prediction market app on Hyperliquid.

Sources and further reading#

Totalis docs: trading, cash out and settlement, accessed 2026-11-10
NBA: integrity framework and prediction market partnerships, accessed 2026-11-10
Kalshi: basketball game contract terms, accessed 2026-11-10
Polymarket US: sports FAQs, accessed 2026-11-10
Robinhood: trading event contracts, accessed 2026-11-10
NBA: 2026-27 key dates, accessed 2026-11-10

FAQ#

Can you trade NBA games on Kalshi?#

Yes, including spreads, totals, player stats and combos. Outside the US, your country must not be restricted under Kalshi's Member Agreement; if it is, see Kalshi alternatives.

Does overtime count in NBA prediction markets?#

Yes, in full-game markets. Kalshi's basketball game contract terms count regulation plus any overtime, as do Polymarket US and Totalis. Quarter markets can exclude it, so read the contract.

Can you trade the NBA championship winner?#

Yes. Kalshi lists a pro basketball champion series, Polymarket lists NBA: 2027 Champion, Polymarket US offers championship futures, and Totalis lists the "2026/2027 NBA winner" question.

Which NBA prediction market app is best outside the US?#

It depends on what you trade. Polymarket lists far more markets per game, Kalshi takes traders from many countries, and Totalis joins up to five games in one Combo.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Prediction market positions can lose their entire value. Availability of markets and features depends on your jurisdiction and each platform’s terms.