Anthropic IPO odds: will it be confirmed by 30 November, and at what first-day market cap?

Contents

Prices on this page are market prices, not forecasts or investment advice.

What are the Anthropic IPO odds?#

As of 13 November 2026, Totalis, Kalshi and Polymarket all put an Anthropic IPO by the end of November at 96% to 98%. The three markets ask slightly different questions: Totalis and Kalshi pay on confirmation (the SEC declaring the filing effective, a final price, or a listing approval), while Polymarket pays when shares open for trading.

Totalis. The market is a HIP-4 outcome deployed on Hyperliquid by trade[XYZ]. Any one of the three events in the table counts; a filing, a price range, a reserved ticker or a stated intent does not, and trading need not begin by the deadline. A later delay or withdrawal does not undo a confirmation. Evidence must be public by 7 December 2026, and the market resolves after that. HIP-4 outcomes are fully collateralized, with no leverage or liquidations. Totalis is not available to US persons or anyone in the US.

Kalshi. The Anthropic IPO market resolves Yes once the SEC declares the S-1 effective, the IPO is priced or an exchange assigns a ticker, under its WHENIPO contract terms. An intended ticker was not enough: per Kalshi's market data, its "Before Nov 1, 2026" contract settled No, although the 26 October S-1 already named ANT.

Polymarket. The Anthropic IPO by ___ market resolves Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public exchange and open for trading by 11:59 pm ET on the date. Its date ladder shows where traders put the first trade, as of 22:48 UTC on 13 November: 0.75% by 18 November, 93.1% by 19 November and 95.6% by 20 November. The UMA Optimistic Oracle settles it, and the international site is close-only for the United States.

The same three venues are compared on another dated event in Fed rate decision prediction markets, and side by side in Hyperliquid vs Polymarket vs Kalshi.

What has Anthropic officially announced about its IPO?#

Anthropic has filed a public registration statement for an IPO and launched its roadshow. As of 13 November 2026, 22:50 UTC, the SEC had not declared the registration effective and no final prospectus or offering price was on file.

The record from Anthropic's newsroom and SEC EDGAR:

• The filings. EDGAR lists Anthropic, PBC (CIK 2130357) with a draft registration statement from 1 June 2026, the public S-1 on 26 October and amendments on 2 and 10 November.
• 26 October. Anthropic announced the S-1 filing and its plan to list Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under ANT.
• 10 November. Anthropic launched the roadshow: 825,000,000 Class A shares, 801,351,354 sold by Anthropic and 23,648,646 by existing stockholders, at an expected $70 to $78 each, with a 30-day option for underwriters to buy 123,750,000 more.
• The prospectus. Amendment No. 2 adds a $26.0 billion private placement of Class N common stock at the IPO price, bought by AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, NVIDIA and TSMC Partners and closing just after the offering. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are the first-named underwriters, and 13,086,672,593 shares of all classes would be outstanding after the offering and the placement.
• The timeline. Anthropic's IPO website, filed with the SEC under Rule 433, says the final price is expected to be set on 18 November and shares to begin trading on 19 November (EST), subject to regulatory clearance.

What first-day market cap do prediction markets price?#

As of 13 November 2026, Totalis and Polymarket priced a first-day market cap above $1.5 trillion at 33% to 47%, above $1.75 trillion at 17% to 20% and above $2 trillion at about 6%. All of these sit above the $916 billion to $1.02 trillion that the price range implies, so the markets price a first-day close above the range.

Totalis prices are Yes book midpoints at 22:46 UTC; Polymarket's are from its closing market cap above ___ market at 22:48 UTC, which also priced a close above $1.25 trillion, about $96 a share, at 79.5%. The per-share column is our arithmetic, the level divided by the prospectus's 13,086,672,593 shares. The final count moves with the price, because the $26.0 billion placement buys shares at the IPO price.

A third Totalis series, listed by 31 December 2026, carries the same five levels and the same rules. If Anthropic lists on 19 November as planned, all three series settle from the same closing price.

How do the Anthropic market cap markets settle?#

On Totalis, the market cap is the listing exchange's official closing price on Anthropic's first trading day times the shares outstanding immediately after the offering, at its final size and excluding over-allotment shares, as the final prospectus states. Above the level resolves Yes, otherwise No.

The three Totalis series differ only in their deadline: 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC, 1 January 2027 at 00:00 UTC and 1 May 2027 at 03:59 UTC. Each resolves to 0.5, paying half, if no first trading day has closed by its deadline, if the offering does not qualify (a direct listing, SPAC deal or reverse merger, for example), or if a required fact can't be established. Evidence counts until seven days after the earlier of the first-day close and the deadline.

Polymarket takes shares outstanding from the primary exchange's official listing page and resolves No if there is no IPO by 31 December 2027. So no IPO pays 0.5 on Totalis and 0 on Polymarket, and the share count can come from a different source. How prediction market odds and payouts work explains the arithmetic.

What does the "Anthropic above" price market track?#

The daily "Anthropic above $X" market on Totalis settles on the price of xyz:ANT, trade[XYZ]'s Anthropic perpetual on Hyperliquid, not on a stock price. The 14 November market resolves Yes if the 60-second average of the xyz:ANT-USDC mark price ending at 21:00 UTC is above $102.40.

xyz:ANT references one share of Anthropic, PBC Class A common stock, quoted in US dollars. Before a listing there is no stock price, so trade[XYZ]'s pre-IPO design prices it from a 30-minute moving average driven by its own order book. After Anthropic starts regular trading, it converts to a standard equity perp priced from the listed stock. If xyz:ANT is delisted first, the daily market settles at its settlement price. Our guide to HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals covers the perp in more detail.

As of 13 November 2026, the xyz:ANT mark price was $101.93 at 22:49 UTC, per Hyperliquid's info API. At the prospectus share count that is about $1.33 trillion, our arithmetic. The 14 November market priced Yes at 42.7% at 22:46 UTC. The 30 November "Anthropic above $100" and "$125" markets settle on a 5-minute average instead.

Where can you trade the Anthropic IPO?#

Totalis, Kalshi and Polymarket all list the IPO question. Totalis puts every Anthropic market in one place:

• Every angle of the IPO. Whether it is confirmed by 30 November, first-day market cap levels with three deadlines, and a daily Anthropic price market, all under Finance, Stocks.
• A set outcome if the IPO slips. The market cap series settle at 0.5 if Anthropic hasn't traded by their deadline, so neither side loses everything to a delay.
• Your own wallet. Orders go to Hyperliquid's HyperCore order book, and your USDC stays in your wallet.
• Combos as the event nears. Markets open for Combos within 7 days of their event: the 14 November price market already was on 13 November.

How do you trade the Anthropic IPO on Totalis?#

1. Find the market. Open "Anthropic IPO confirmed by Nov 30, 2026 23:59 UTC", or a market cap level, and check the price and spread.
2. Sign up with an invite code. Totalis is not available to US persons or anyone in the US.
3. Buy Yes or No. The order goes straight to the HyperCore order book. A share pays 1 USDC if your side wins.
4. Know the fees. Singles carry a 0.1% builder fee on filled value plus Hyperliquid's own outcome trading fee, per the Totalis fees and limits page.

Trade the Anthropic IPO market on Totalis

How Totalis works on Hyperliquid covers accounts and funding, how to trade prediction markets on Hyperliquid walks through a first trade, and what HIP-4 is explains the markets underneath.

Sources and further reading#

• SEC EDGAR, Anthropic, PBC filings, accessed 2026-11-13
• Anthropic, S-1 Amendment No. 2, accessed 2026-11-13
• Anthropic, roadshow launch, accessed 2026-11-13
• Kalshi, WHENIPO contract terms, accessed 2026-11-13
• trade[XYZ], pre-IPO perpetuals, accessed 2026-11-13

FAQ#

When is the Anthropic IPO date?#

Anthropic's IPO website, filed with the SEC, says the price is expected to be set on 18 November 2026 and shares to begin trading on Nasdaq on 19 November (EST), subject to regulatory clearance. As of 13 November, Polymarket priced a first trade by 19 November at 93.1%.

What is the Anthropic IPO price and valuation?#

The expected range is $70 to $78 a share for 825 million Class A shares. At the 13.09 billion shares the prospectus shows after the offering and its private placement, that is about $916 billion to $1.02 trillion, our arithmetic. The final price can fall outside the range.

What happens if the IPO slips past 30 November?#

The Totalis IPO market resolves No if no qualifying confirmation is public by 30 November 2026 at 23:59 UTC. A confirmation by then still counts if trading starts later. The market cap series keep running to their own deadlines and pay 0.5 if Anthropic hasn't traded by then.

Where can I trade Anthropic IPO odds?#

On Totalis, which lists the IPO confirmation market, three first-day market cap ladders and a daily Anthropic price market. Kalshi and Polymarket also list the IPO.

Are the Totalis, Kalshi and Polymarket markets the same?#

Not quite. Totalis and Kalshi pay on confirmation: an effective registration, a final price or a listing approval. Polymarket pays when shares open for trading. A confirmation can be public before the first trade.

What is Anthropic's stock ticker?#

Anthropic has applied to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under ANT. Until it lists, xyz:ANT on Hyperliquid is a perpetual on the anticipated share price, not the stock.

Can you buy Anthropic shares in the IPO?#

Anthropic's IPO website says to request shares through a participating brokerage, and its filings describe public offers in the US, the UK, several EEA countries, Japan and Australia. A prediction market position is a claim on one outcome, with no shares, allocation or vote. Two other private names in prediction markets get the same treatment in is there a Kalshi stock and is there a Polymarket stock.